A new climate study has more bad news to deliver on the front of global warming and its bad influence on the populations of Adélie penguins in Antarctica.
The ice-free and rocky land is favored by these tuxedo-clad birds for breeding. As glaciers have melted gradually over the centuries, Adélie penguins seemed to thrive in the once icebound land.
However, it seems that the Antarctic climate has reached a tipping point, and researchers claim that future warming will likely contribute to the further decline of Adélie colonies.
“It is only in recent decades that we know Adélie penguins population declines are associated with warming, which suggests that many regions of Antarctica have warmed too much and that further warming is no longer positive for the species,” explained Megan Cimino, a researcher at the University of Delaware in the College of Earth, Ocean and the Environment.
Cimino, who’s one of the study’s co-authors, added that Adélie penguins live in colonies all along the Antarctic, and prefer rocky patches of ground for breeding from October through February. This is one of the traits that differentiate them from emperor penguins, which have no trouble breeding on ice.
Previous studies had already found serious declines in the populations of Adélie penguins in particular regions of Antarctica (West Antarctica was the worst affected).
In order to determine the impact of climate on the future of bird populations, Cimino’s team analyzed head counts from real colonies, in addition to satellite imagery and temperature data of vast regions of Antarctica that are either ice-bound or ice-free.
Thanks to high-resolution satellite imagery, the researchers were also able to accurately estimate the penguin colony size. After cross-referencing this data with unusual climate patterns between 1981 and 2010, Cimino combined the results with climate models to predict future sea ice and temperature, and its impact on future penguin populations.
Some of the Adélie penguins will have it rough: the models show that by 2060, roughly 30 percent of the colonies will have suffered a drop in numbers, while another 60 percent of colonies will be in serious decline by the end of this century.
According to the report in the journal Scientific Reports, at least half of the Adélie penguins could disappear by 2099. Colonies in the West Antarctic Peninsula are the most prone to face declining penguin populations.
Image Source: Flickr
Michael Turner
